PCE inflation soars to highest level since November as investors price in 2-in-5 chance of no rate cuts before Election Day

One month after increasing for the first time since September, the personal consumption expenditures price inflation index rose again from 2.5% to 2.8% in the month ending in March, its highest annual level since November of last year. Core PCE inflation, which strips away the volatile categories of food and energy prices, held constant at 2.8% on a year-over-year basis. Both headline and core PCE rose by 0.3% just in March, or nearly twice the Federal Reserve’s maximum target of a 2% annual inflation rate.

March marks the second straight month that headline PCE, headline consumer price index inflation, headline wholesale inflation, and core wholesale inflation all increased. Only core PCE and core CPI have stagnated, the latter at a troublingly high 3.8%. Of the six primary monthly inflation gauges used by the Fed, not one demonstrated an actual decrease in inflation, let alone…

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