The Pandemic Saving Rate Fueled Inflation
The American consumer may have one more jump scare left for the economy.
Slasher films all tend to end the same way. The murderous psycho has seemingly been vanquished. The protagonists finally can breathe a sigh of relief in a moment of calm. Suddenly, the killer bursts into the scene, showing he’s still viable enough to make a final homicidal plunge.
The killer in our economy was arguably the excess savings built up during the pandemic period. For around 18 months, from the the onset of the lockdowns and attendant economic recession in March 2020 through August of 2021, households rapidly accumulated savings.
The chart below shows the personal saving rate, which is calculated by subtracting taxes and spending from personal income. It jumped from 6.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2019 all the way to 24.4 percent in the second…
