Do adversaries make choices with regards to America‘s perceived strength and resolve? Absolutely. Are these perceptions their key motives for starting a war?
Negative.
This bears note in light of the oft-stated refrain that a U.S. action in relation to one conflict motivates an adversary’s decision in relation to another conflict. Former Vice President Mike Pence encapsulated this argument on Thursday. Speaking in Brussels, Pence suggested, “We don’t talk enough about that disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan that I think set the stage in ways that emboldened Russia to cross the border of Ukraine.” This perspective replicates similar arguments that Ukraine’s defeat to Russia would heavily encourage China to invade Taiwan.
Don’t misunderstand me. The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan was an epic disaster. As Jerry Dunleavy and James Hasson note in Kabul, this debacle…
