There’s a 64% probability that Kamala Harris will win this November’s presidential election, given the stock market’s strong year-to-date performance.
This is moderately higher than the 58% probability I reported in a column this past May. That’s because the stock market is higher now than it was then, and there is a significant correlation between the stock market’s election-year performance and the incumbent party’s chances of retaining the White House.
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Many readers have been urging me to update that column, now that President Biden has withdrawn from the race and Kamala Harris is the presumptive Democratic Party nominee. But the change in candidates does not impact the statistical conclusion, which is based on the identity of the incumbent party rather than the nominee. The only input to my…
