The relentless shelling of Ukraine is obscuring a shadow crisis created by the war: long-term damage to the global food system that seems likely to increase hunger, disrupt markets, change land and water use, and possibly even release more carbon into the atmosphere.
Russia and Ukraine are Europe’s breadbasket; the International Food Policy Research Institute estimates that their exports represent 12 percent of all the food calories traded in the world. The two countries account for almost 30 percent of global wheat exports, almost 20 percent of corn exports, and more than 80 percent of the world supply of sunflower oil. Those exports are stalled for different reasons—in Ukraine by Russia’s invasion, and in Russia by global sanctions—but the net effect is the same. It’s as if Iowa and Illinois, the heart of US grain production, were ripped off the map.
Early signs of that…
