Four weeks after Donald Trump’s conviction in a much-criticized Manhattan prosecution and a week before the first and earliest-ever scheduled post-primary presidential debate, it’s a good time to look at how these two unusually elderly and oft-reviled candidates stand in the contest.
The big news is that there isn’t much big news. Trump’s lead over President Joe Biden in the RealClearPolitics average of recent polls was 0.9 percentage points when the verdict was handed down and 0.8 points as this is written. With Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and other third candidates included, Trump’s lead over Biden increased from 2.2 points to 2.4.
In other words, no perceptible change. As Republican pollster Patrick Ruffini posts, contrary to interest, “Very real possibility that there will be very little of substance to talk about polling wise before Election Day.”
But there is a sharp…
