Was it just a coincidence that Vice President Kamala Harris showed up, fifteen minutes late, to be interviewed by Fox News’s Bret Baier on the same day, Oct. 17, that Nate Silver’s poll aggregation website showed her chances of winning the election slipping below 50%? Probably not.
What may link Harris’s slide in the polls and her tardy appearance for an interview in which she served up word salads to Baier’s questions on immigration and inflation and then segued, sometimes awkwardly, to denunciations of Donald Trump? October hasn’t been a good month for Harris or her party.
Not entirely bad. Silver’s model still gives her a 47% chance of winning, much higher than Donald Trump’s 29% on election eve 2016. But it’s perceptibly below her 57% chance on September 27, which reflected poll results after the September 10 debate. “Since then,” Silver writes, “the…
