Our Odds for the 2022 Oscar Nominations

Will all five of these contenders make it in?
Photo-Illustration: Vulture; Photos by Warner Bros, Walt Disney Studios, Focus Features and Netflix

Like everyone else, the Oscars hoped things would be back to normal by now. When Venice and Telluride went off without a hitch, it seemed as if the awards industry might be able to pretend it was 2019 all over again with in-person schmoozing, packed premieres, and a Best Picture field full of theatrical hits. That was not to be. Omicron hit just as the season was ramping up, and everyone retreated to the safety of digital screeners and Zoom Q&As. Even more jarring, the widespread sense of hope around this year’s contenders — two years’ worth of movies in one fall season!…

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