History says Republicans will lose the House – but current events indicate otherwise.
In 20 of the last 22 midterm elections, the party of the president has lost an average of 28 House seats. This time, however, Republicans hope to break the trend. The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) has identified 26 House Democrats it considers “vulnerable” in 2026. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) released a similar list of at-risk Democratic seats. Can the GOP defy history to widen its currently slim margin of majority in the House?
Midterm Challenges
Thirteen of the lawmakers on the NRCC’s list represent districts President Donald Trump won in the November election. Of the 26 endangered seats, five are in California, three of which unseated Republican incumbents in 2024. New York also has…
