The success or failure of the West’s economic war against Russia is crucial to the outcome of the fight in Ukraine. But knowing whether the sanctions are working will be difficult.
Estimates of the economic damage vary widely. The Institute for International Finance, a grouping of international banks, expects Russian economic output to fall by a third this year. Economists at credit-ratings firm Standard & Poor see a contraction of 6.2% in 2022, while Moody’s Analytics estimates the sanctions-induced slowdown will cut economic output by between 13.5% and 24% depending on the duration of the conflict, and the scale of the decline in Russian energy exports.
“This is a massive act of self-harm,” said Gaurav Ganguly, an economist at Moody’s.
There are two ways to track the impact of the sanctions: with economic data or with…
