G.K. Chesterton once said that he owed his success to having listened respectfully to the very best advice, and then doing the exact opposite.
This is how we have felt over the past year and half while the vast majority of establishment economists consistently were wrong about inflation. They forecast that inflation would stay mild, that it would stay confined to a few things related to passing shortages and the reopening, that it would prove transitory, and that it had peaked. We consistently argued that this was nonsense and predicted inflation would keep rising.
There were, of course, some establishment types who got things right (and plenty of heterodox economists, especially on the left, who were as wrong as the establishment types). Larry Summers, Oliver Blanchard, Jason Furman—all thoroughly establishment and left-of-center—predicted higher inflation or warned that…
