(Bloomberg) — Investors loading up on long-term bonds have history at their back.
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For decades, Treasuries maturing in 10 or more years have consistently outperformed shorter-dated sectors immediately following the last in a series of interest-rate increases by the Federal Reserve. On average, they returned 10% over six months after the fed funds rate peaked.
Of course, only in hindsight is it known whether a rate increase is the last one. But investors have embraced the view that an expected quarter-point hike in the target range for the federal funds rate on July 26 will conclude the epic series that began in March 2022. And surveys by Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. have found that investors digesting the price action have jacked up their exposure to long-dated bonds.
“We like the idea of extending and adding duration at this point in the…
