First CPI Report of Trump Presidency Beats Market Estimates

The next inflation print could be even better.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the February consumer price index (CPI), the first full dataset under President Donald Trump. The findings? It came in better than economists had expected, and early estimates suggest next month’s will be even better. Whether the good times will persist throughout 2025 depends on many variables, from crude oil prices to tariffs.

The February CPI Report

Last month, the annual inflation rate slowed to 2.8%, down from 3% in January. This was softer than the consensus forecast of 2.9%. The core CPI report, which omits the volatile energy and food services, also eased to a better-than-expected 3.1%. Supercore inflation, which the Federal Reserve typically observes when it feels like it, dipped below 4% for the first time since late 2023.


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