Fed’s Favorite Underlying Inflation Gauge Is Seen Cooling

(Bloomberg) — The Federal Reserve’s first-line inflation gauge is about to show some modest relief from stubborn price pressures, corroborating central bankers’ prudence about the timing of interest-rate cuts.

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Economists expect the personal consumption expenditures price index minus food and energy — due on Friday — to rise 0.2% in April. That would mark the smallest advance so far this year for the measure, which provides a better snapshot of underlying inflation.

The overall PCE price index probably climbed 0.3% for a third month, according to median projection in a Bloomberg survey. Increases this year stand in contrast to relatively flat readings in the final three months of 2023, underscoring uneven progress for the Fed in its inflation fight.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues have stressed the need for more evidence that inflation is on a…

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