Going into the 21st century, Ecuador had never been to a World Cup. They have now played in three, and a 1-1 draw away to Peru on Tuesday takes them very close to a fourth.
It is just possible to find a way that they can be overtaken by two of Uruguay, Peru and Chile, but it is very difficult — not least because Uruguay and Peru meet each other next month in the penultimate round, and Uruguay play Chile in the round after that. And Ecuador would also have to lose a massive advantage in goal difference — over 10 goals better than all of their rivals. It is not 100% confirmed by the mathematics, but it seems all but certain that Ecuador will join Brazil and Argentina as South America’s representatives in Qatar.
It could — and perhaps should — have been sown up on Tuesday night in Lima. The game always seemed set up for the Ecuador counter-attack, which struck as early as the second…
