An early preview gives Democrats a slight advantage in the 2026 Midterms, though both major political parties argue they have the upper hand.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball says that Democrats should be favored during the midterms but projects the party’s edge is exceedingly narrow
Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, argues that both parties have some built-in advantages with more than 18 months to go before the elections. Democrats, by being out of the presidency, are expected to gain House seats, which has happened to the out-of-power party in every midterm cycle but one since 1978.
“Debut Crystal Ball House ratings — 209 seats Safe/Likely/Leans D, 207 seats Safe/Likely/Leans R, 19 Toss-ups,” Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, posted on X. “Competitive overall map gives Rs a chance to defy history but big-picture midterm trends…
