(Bloomberg) — China is likely to report rapid economic expansion for the second quarter, although underlying figures will reveal a more challenging picture.
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The comparison with last year, when Shanghai was enduring a Covid-related lockdown, will make Monday’s gross domestic product data look a lot better than was actually the case. GDP likely grew 7.1% for the quarter on a year-over-year basis, up from 4.5% in the previous period, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
Compared with the first quarter of 2023, though, it probably rose just 0.8%. Monthly data for industrial production, retail sales and fixed investment — all scheduled for Monday — are expected to show a marked slowdown in June. Retail sales growth, in particular, likely slid to 3.3% from 12.7% in May.
Economists are focusing on the latter figures to get a fuller picture of China’s…
