What is perplexing about this probability figure is that the presidential polls show a dead heat. Moreover, nonpartisan polling experts say that the presidential race is essentially a toss-up. So, are the betting sites a strong gauge of voter sentiment because a wide range of participants are wagering real money, or are the polls more accurate?
In early October, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit ruled that people could bet on election outcomes. Judges said that federal regulators did not show that the public interest would be harmed by allowing betting markets. Gambling on elections is nothing new. Political futures markets have a long history. People have bet on elections as far back as 16th-century Italy. In the United States, election betting was typical in the period after the Civil War.
Some worry that betting markets could influence how people vote….
