With three weeks left in the 2024 regular season, the NFL playoff picture is unusually settled. Seven teams have clinched postseason berths — three in the NFC and four in the AFC — leaving seven spots up for grabs.
Which teams will fill those spots? Based on 10,000 simulations using ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) to simulate the finish to the season, there were 4,393 unique combinations of playoff teams and seeds. The focus below, however, is on one specific scenario: chalk.
The ESPN FPI model produced the precise set of teams and seeds most likely to occur. This scenario isn’t all that likely as the exact seeds for the 14 teams below occurred in 73 simulations. That’s less than 1% but is more likely than any other combination. Individually, the AFC seeds below have an 11% chance to occur, and the NFC seeds have a 6% chance.
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