The Fed’s Flawed Math on Trump’s Tariffs
A new study from New York Fed claims tariffs imposed during Trump’s first term inflicted trillions of dollars in economic harm and a serious “welfare loss” on Americans, yet the Trump years saw unprecedented gains in household income, a booming stock market, and historic lows in unemployment.
Something doesn’t add up.
Like so much economic analysis from the establishment, the Fed study arrives with breathless findings of calamity. According to the Fed, tariff announcements wiped out $4.1 trillion in U.S. stock market value, inflicted a three percent “welfare loss,” and sowed uncertainty across the economy. The verdict: tariffs are to blame for grievous harm to the American economy.
This fails even the simplest test of economic plausibility because the Trump years—at least prior to the pandemic—were a time of…
