When this dropped over the weekend, all you could do was laugh. In Iowa, a ruby-red state, Kamala Harris leapfrogged Donald Trump in the waning days of the 2024 election. That’s like saying Florida is in play or Montana—it’s simply not true. It was rightly criticized, as we would have seen a ramp-up to the flip months ago. You don’t go from Trump+18 to Kamala +3—we’d see that in the polling over the summer. There’s no ambush here. Many were wondering if the poll by Ann Selzer, who is credible, isn’t being skewed by nonresponse bias.
When pressed about the crosstabs, Selzer didn’t know what they were, or at the very least, couldn’t read the breakdown when asked about it on Mark Halperin’s show:
Political genius Ann Selzer appears confused over what the “R” and “D” letters refer to in polling cross tabs
