Market prophet Gary Shilling expects S&P 500 returns to slump — and warns a recession could stretch into 2025

Gary Shilling.Bloomberg TV

  • Investors should expect lower stock market returns in the future, Gary Shilling says.

  • The legendary forecaster cited slower economic growth, steep valuations, and fading speculation.

  • Merrill Lynch’s first chief economist said a recession appears likely and could extend into 2025.

Investors in the stock market face decades of disappointment, and a recession threatens to strike this year and extend into 2025, a legendary market forecaster warned.

The S&P 500 has gained an average of 12.3% a year including dividends since bottoming in July 1982, but it’s likely to post lower returns going forward, Gary Shilling wrote in his Insight newsletter for February.

Merrill Lynch’s first chief economist, who launched his own consultancy and advisory firm in 1978, is known for correctly calling several major market shifts over the past 50 years.

In his latest outlook, Shilling…

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