Despite the foreboding conventional wisdom, Donald Trump has not yet concluded the Republican presidential primary victorious. While the former president is indeed the dominant front-runner, with betting markets giving him a 3-in-4 chance of winning the nomination, that’s only roughly the same chance Hillary Clinton had against him in the general election in 2016 (in the actual statistical modeling, not the wishcasting of the infamous New York Times needle). And, as we all know, Clinton lost.
But while Ron DeSantis still has a statistically significant shot at an upset, it’s far from the two-man race that the Florida governor tried to portray at his campaign launch. In fact, not only has Nikki Haley usurped his second place position in the betting markets, but now the former ambassador to the United Nations has caught up to him in Iowa, according to the state’s gold standard polling…
