Will the April showers give way to May flowers?
April is historically the best month of the year for the S&P 500. Stephen Suttmeier of Bank of America recently ran the numbers and found that the broad index rose 66 percent of the time on an average return of 1.41 percent going back to 1928. After a tough start for the year—the S&P saw its first down quarter since the initial pandemic lockdowns in 2020, falling 4.95 percent—a lot of investors went into April hoping for a reprieve rally.
We now know those hopes were dashed upon the growing realization that the Fed would have to hike interest rates much higher than anticipated earlier this year and that the faster climb increased the risk of a recession. The S&P sold off 8.7 percent on a total return basis. The Nasdaq fell 13 percent and is down 23 percent from its November peak. The quantitative strategy team at Bank of…
