Ukraine crisis: Five reasons why Putin might not invade

The optics look dreadful.

Russia has deployed more than two-thirds of its military combat capability to within striking distance of Ukraine’s borders.

Its 30,000 troops that were supposed to withdraw from neighbouring Belarus at the weekend are still there. So are pontoon bridges and other logistic equipment needed for an invasion.

Violence is flaring in the two Russian-backed breakaway republics in Eastern Ukraine. Russia’s demands from Nato remain unmet and diplomacy has so far failed to bring about any significant withdrawal of Russian forces.

Meanwhile western leaders and their intelligence…

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