Wow, was I ever wrong.
On Jan. 16, 2010, I reported that “a nationwide survey last year found that investors expect the U.S. stock market to return an annual average of 13.7% over the next 10 years.” That was ridiculous, I sneered: “What are we smoking, and when will we stop?” I thought 6% would be generous, adding that “faith in fancifully high returns” amounted to “fairy-tale expectations.”
Over the 10 years ended Dec. 31, 2019, the S&P 500 returned 13.6%—almost exactly what those investors I mocked had expected. With stocks near record highs today, what should you and I learn from my mistake?
