What would become the most lucrative Super Bowl to date for Las Vegas sportsbooks began with a massive loss on the very first play of the game.
In NFL history, only 6.8% of regular-season games — approximately one in 15 — have included a safety, according to Elias Sports Bureau. Yet, year after year, the betting public loads up on a safety occurring in the Super Bowl, despite odds nowhere close to 15-1. The going price for a safety in the Super Bowl this year is 7-1.
Meanwhile, savvy pro bettors annually short the Super Bowl safety, sometimes waiting until just before kickoff to risk hundreds of thousands of dollars for a chance at winning a few thousand dollars. Sportsbooks align themselves with the pros on the safety prop and end up with tons of small bets on the “yes” at long odds, and a handful of giant wagers on the “no” that pay only a little.
“Laying a big price is not sexy,”…
